Winning Probability and Team Stats for Marlins vs Cardinals Match – Saturday June 27, 2026

Miami Marlins

@

St. Louis Cardinals

Miami Marlins Insights

• Ryan Gusto – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+120)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Ryan Gusto has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an -9.4 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Griffin Conine – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Griffin Conine has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (78% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Owen Caissie – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Owen Caissie hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Andre Pallante’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (50.7% vs. 42.8% last year) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Lars Nootbaar has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last year’s 91.3-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The St. Louis Cardinals (19.9 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-least strikeout-prone group of hitters of the day.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 50 games (+6.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Run Line +1.5 (-170)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 22 games (+15.00 Units / 50% ROI)
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+145/-190)
  Alec Burleson has hit the RBIs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+15.85 Units / 63% ROI)