Starting Lineup for Mariners vs Guardians – June 27, 2026

Seattle Mariners

@

Cleveland Guardians

Seattle Mariners Insights

• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Over the last two weeks, J.P. Crawford’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.6% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Slade Cecconi – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Slade Cecconi’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (52.3% vs. 45.3% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Steven Kwan’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 86.3-mph mark last season has decreased to 83-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Slade Cecconi – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Guardians’s expected catcher today) projects as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.45 Units / 51% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 away games (+8.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.20 Units / 17% ROI)