
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Minnesota Twins
-170O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)+145
(-120/+100)+145
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Justin Wrobleski – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+110)Justin Wrobleski has recorded 18.8 outs per start this year, grading out in the 98th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Tommy Edman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)Tommy Edman is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Mookie Betts hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)Josh Bell has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last season’s 25.21 ft/sec to 25.77 ft/sec now (according to Statcast’s Sprint Speed metric).Explain: Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.
- The Minnesota Twins have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Alex Jackson, Ryan Kreidler, Byron Buxton).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-105)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 23 away games (+7.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Shohei Ohtani has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.25 Units / 39% ROI)
