
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Chicago White Sox
-205O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)+175
(-110/-110)+175
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s four-seam fastball percentage has decreased by 8.7% from last season to this one (35.7% to 27%) .Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Kyle Tucker is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H MoneylineThe Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Sean Burke – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Sean Burke’s 2556-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 96th percentile among all starters.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Edgar Quero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)From last season to this one, Edgar Quero’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 90.6 mph to 87.3 mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Colson Montgomery pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.7% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (+175)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+13.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-145)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games (+7.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)Miguel Vargas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.30 Units / 36% ROI)
