Player Props Analysis for Mariners vs Nationals - Saturday June 13th, 2026

+100O/U: 9
(-110/-110)-120

Luis Castillo – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
Luis Castillo has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 6.1 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
Luke Raley’s average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 90-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 80.8-mph in the last two weeks.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Seattle Mariners hitters jointly grade out 10th- in MLB for power this year when using their 8.8% Barrel%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Cade Cavalli – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
Given the 1.04 disparity between Cade Cavalli’s 9.82 K/9 and his 8.78 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball this year in terms of strikeouts and ought to see negative regression the rest of the season.
Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Drew Millas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
Drew Millas has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .221 figure is quite a bit lower than his .332 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
James Wood has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 11th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 games (+10.90 Units / 28% ROI)
Seattle Mariners – Run Line -1.0 (+130)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 45 away games (+5.65 Units / 11% ROI)
Daylen Lile – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
Daylen Lile has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games at home (+8.15 Units / 30% ROI)

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