Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Dodgers vs Pirates - Thursday, June 11, 2026

-155O/U: 9.5
(+100/-120)+135

Justin Wrobleski – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Among all starters, Justin Wrobleski’s fastball spin rate of 2436 rpm is in the 83rd percentile this year.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Max Muncy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
Max Muncy has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.6-mph average to last season’s 95-mph average.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
Freddie Freeman has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Mitch Keller will record an average of 3.58 earned runs in this game.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Pittsburgh Pirates today owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .311, which is a fair amount worse than their actual wOBA of .322 this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

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