
Seattle Mariners
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Baltimore Orioles
-110O/U: 9
(-110/-110)-110
(-110/-110)-110
Seattle Mariners Insights
- George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Given that groundball pitchers have a big advantage over groundball batters, George Kirby and his 46.6% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable position in today’s game squaring off against 2 opposing GB batters.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Cole Young – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)Cole Young is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Today, Mitch Garver is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.7% rate (98th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Brandon Young – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Brandon Young’s higher usage rate of his fastball this season (52.9 vs. 43.8% last year) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Leody Taveras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)Leody Taveras’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 86.4-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 80.8-mph over the last two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Baltimore Orioles have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Blaze Alexander, Tyler O’Neill, Colton Cowser, Sam Huff).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Baltimore Orioles – Run Line +1.5 (-170)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+5.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 away games (+6.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- Brandon Young – Over/Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-120/-110)Brandon Young has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+7.40 Units / 72% ROI)
