Score Updates for Brewers vs Athletics – 6/9/26

Milwaukee Brewers

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Athletics

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Robert Gasser – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Considering that flyball pitchers have a substantial edge over flyball bats, Robert Gasser and his 36.1% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable position today matching up with 2 opposing FB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Sal Frelick’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 88.2-mph figure last year has fallen to 84.8-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Athletics Insights

• J.T. Ginn – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  J.T. Ginn has relied on his sinker 15.1% less often this season (34.2%) than he did last season (49.3%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Extreme groundball bats like Brent Rooker tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Robert Gasser.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Colby Thomas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Colby Thomas hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 2nd-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 13.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.80 Units / 35% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Run Line -1.5 (+125)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games (+9.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• Zack Gelof – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Zack Gelof has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+12.25 Units / 57% ROI)