
Kansas City Royals
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Minnesota Twins
-110O/U: 9
(-110/-110)-110
(-110/-110)-110
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Noah Cameron – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Noah Cameron has relied on his secondary pitches 5.5% less often this year (68.1%) than he did last season (73.6%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+140/-185)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bobby Witt Jr. as the 3rd-best batter in the majors when assessing his batting average skill.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
- Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Today, Bobby Witt Jr. is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.5% rate (87th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Minnesota Twins – Moneyline (-110)Out of all the teams in action today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the Minnesota Twins.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Brooks Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)Brooks Lee has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (62% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The Minnesota Twins have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Alex Jackson, Ryan Kreidler, Byron Buxton).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+8.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team TotalThe Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 50 away games (+5.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- Austin Martin – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-135/+105)Austin Martin has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.20 Units / 29% ROI)
