Miami Marlins
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New York Mets
+115O/U: 7
(-110/-110)-135
(-110/-110)-135
Miami Marlins Insights
- Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)With a 3.58 deviation between Tyler Phillips’s 1.07 ERA and his 4.65 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in MLB this year and ought to see worse results going forward.Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Otto Lopez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Otto Lopez has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 7.6% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Miami Marlins hitters as a group grade out 29th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 6.2% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
New York Mets Insights
- Christian Scott – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Christian Scott’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2446 rpm) has been quite a bit better than than his seasonal rate (2324 rpm).Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
- Marcus Semien – Over/Under Total BasesMarcus Semien’s average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 88.4-mph average last year has dropped off to 85.8-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Mark Vientos – Over/Under Total BasesMark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.