Betting Guide and Odds for Nationals vs Braves - Saturday May 23, 2026

+145O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-165

Jake Irvin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
Jake Irvin has utilized his curveball 6.4% less often this year (23.5%) than he did last season (29.9%).
Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
Daylen Lile – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
Daylen Lile is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
The Washington Nationals bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Grant Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
Grading out in the 84th percentile, Grant Holmes put up a 12.4% Swinging Strike percentage this year.
Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
Matt Olson has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.8-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 94-mph mark.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Dominic Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
Dominic Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves – Run Line -1.5 (+120)
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.85 Units / 28% ROI)
Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-140)
The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 24 away games (+11.60 Units / 34% ROI)
James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (-115/-115)
James Wood has hit the Walks Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+8.55 Units / 38% ROI)

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