Betting Trends for Pirates vs Cardinals Game – 5/20/26

Pittsburgh Pirates

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St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Carmen Mlodzinski – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Among all SPs, Carmen Mlodzinski’s fastball spin rate of 2047 rpm ranks in the 6th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Nick Gonzales has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Michael McGreevy has recorded 17.1 outs per start this year, placing in the 78th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Jordan Walker has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.8-mph average to last year’s 92.3-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen projects as the 7th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+6.90 Units / 29% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-140)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games (+6.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Spencer Horwitz has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 56% ROI)