Read the Game Recap for Reds vs Guardians - May 16th, 2026

+130O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-150

Chris Paddack – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
Recording 13.1 outs per game per started this year on average, Chris Paddack falls in the 9th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
In comparison to his 90.7-mph average last year, Elly De La Cruz’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 93.8 mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
The 11.8% Barrel% of the Cincinnati Reds makes them the #2 club in baseball this year by this metric.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
Considering the 1.24 discrepancy between Joey Cantillo’s 2.98 ERA and his 4.21 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and ought to negatively regress in the future.
Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.4% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 50 games at home (+6.25 Units / 11% ROI)
Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+110)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.85 Units / 18% ROI)
Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
Daniel Schneemann has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+9.55 Units / 38% ROI)

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