How to Watch Cubs vs Braves - Tuesday, May 12, 2026

+100O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-120

Colin Rea – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
Recording 96.2 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Colin Rea checks in at the 94th percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Michael Busch – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
Michael Busch has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.7-mph to 95-mph in the last two weeks.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
The Chicago Cubs bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Grant Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
Grant Holmes’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (43.6 vs. 33.3% last year) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
Mike Yastrzemski is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#1-best on the slate today).
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Dominic Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-200/+155)
Dominic Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves – Run Line -1.0 (+120)
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Run Line in 18 of their last 24 games (+12.95 Units / 44% ROI)
Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games (+6.40 Units / 13% ROI)
Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
Carson Kelly has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.40 Units / 33% ROI)

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