Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Cardinals vs Padres – Saturday, May 9th, 2026

St. Louis Cardinals

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San Diego Padres

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Dustin May – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Dustin May has relied on his non-fastballs 5% more often this year (55.2%) than he did last season (50.2%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Nolan Gorman has big-time power (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (31.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Randy Vasquez struggles to strike batters out (5th percentile K%) — great news for Gorman.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• St. Louis Cardinals bats jointly rank near the top of MLB this year (9th-) when it comes to their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+135)
  Among all starters, Randy Vasquez’s fastball spin rate of 2432 rpm ranks in the 81st percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Manny Machado has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.9-mph to 97-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.05 Units / 28% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+120)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 away games (+9.75 Units / 50% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+6.15 Units / 28% ROI)