Mets vs Angels Best Bets and Expert Picks – Friday May 01, 2026

New York Mets

@

Los Angeles Angels

New York Mets Insights

• Christian Scott – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  With 6 batters of the same handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Christian Scott should benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Carson Benge – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Carson Benge has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 98.9-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be sensible to expect better numbers for the New York Mets offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Walbert Urena – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Walbert Urena’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2166 rpm) has been considerably worse than than his seasonal rate (2226 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  As it relates to his batting average, Josh Lowe has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .215 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .255.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Los Angeles Angels bats jointly grade out 6th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 9.6% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+6.30 Units / 31% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.70 Units / 40% ROI)
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Marcus Semien has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+7.60 Units / 75% ROI)