Cardinals vs Pirates Picks and Betting Odds – 4/28/2026

St. Louis Cardinals

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Pittsburgh Pirates

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Kyle Leahy – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-165/+125)
  When assessing his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Kyle Leahy in the 11th percentile among all SPs in the majors.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under Hits
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under Total Bases
  When estimating his overall offensive skill, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Joey Bart – Over/Under Total Bases
  Joey Bart has strong power (78th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (29.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Kyle Leahy doesn’t generate many whiffs (12th percentile K%) — great news for Bart.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Konnor Griffin, Oneil Cruz, Joey Bart).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+5.85 Units / 31% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.75 Units / 35% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.70 Units / 24% ROI)