Updated Player Rankings for Pirates vs Brewers - April 26th, 2026

+110O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-130

Carmen Mlodzinski – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
Carmen Mlodzinski’s change-up percentage has jumped by 16.5% from last season to this one (11.6% to 28.1%) .
Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
Oneil Cruz has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 98-mph average to last year’s 95.9-mph mark.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Billy Cook, Konnor Griffin, Oneil Cruz, Joey Bart).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-130)
Among every team today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
Typically, batters like William Contreras who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Carmen Mlodzinski.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-best out of all major league teams.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+110)
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+3.45 Units / 7% ROI)
Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-200)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+10.90 Units / 37% ROI)
Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
Brice Turang has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+8.60 Units / 17% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics