See Picks and Betting Line for Pirates vs Brewers – Saturday, April 25, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Milwaukee Brewers

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Moneyline (+115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense profiles as the worst among all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  In the past week, Oneil Cruz’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 22.6% up to 33.3%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Konnor Griffin, Joey Bart).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jacob Misiorowski – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Jacob Misiorowski is expected to post an average of 7.4 strikeouts in this game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• David Hamilton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  David Hamilton’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 87-mph EV last year has dropped to 82.5-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen grades out as the 8th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 30 games at home (+6.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Moneyline (+115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 35 games (+7.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-150)
  Sal Frelick has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.35 Units / 32% ROI)