Yankees vs Astros Game Highlights – Saturday, April 25, 2026

New York Yankees

@

Houston Astros

New York Yankees Insights

• Ryan Weathers – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Ryan Weathers’s fastball velocity has fallen 1 mph this year (95.2 mph) below where it was last year (96.2 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Aaron Judge has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 102.6-mph average to last season’s 99.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Aaron Judge hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 8th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Michael Burrows – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Mike Burrows is projected to throw 85 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 4th-least on the slate today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Yordan Alvarez is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of New York (#2-worst of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• The underlying talent of the Houston Astros projected lineup today (.327 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit weaker than their .340 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+9.20 Units / 36% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (+105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 away games (+7.45 Units / 41% ROI)
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.70 Units / 59% ROI)