Get Recommended Player Prop Bets for Phillies vs Braves – Friday, April 24, 2026

Philadelphia Phillies

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Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Andrew Painter – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+155/-200)
  Andrew Painter has been given less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 7.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Bryce Harper has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.5-mph dropping to 84.8-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 6.8% Barrel% of the Philadelphia Phillies grades them out as the #28 group of hitters in the majors this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Grant Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Grant Holmes’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (47 compared to 33.3% last year) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Austin Riley – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  When it comes to his home runs, Austin Riley has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His 20.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 35.2.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Dominic Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Dominic Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+9.05 Units / 55% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.55 Units / 31% ROI)
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1500)
  Ozzie Albies has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+7.50 Units / 94% ROI)