Explore Brewers vs Tigers Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 4/23/2026

Milwaukee Brewers

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Detroit Tigers

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Brandon Sproat – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Brandon Sproat has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Brandon Lockridge – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Brandon Lockridge has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Luis Matos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Luis Matos hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.1% — 100th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Tarik Skubal has gone to his change-up 5.6% less often this year (25.9%) than he did last season (31.5%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-205)
  There has been a decrease in Gleyber Torres’s average exit velocity this year, from 89.8 mph last year to 83.2 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Detroit grades out as the #2 group of hitters in the majors when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (18.8% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games at home (+5.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Run Line +1.5 (-125)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 50 away games (+8.00 Units / 13% ROI)