
Philadelphia Phillies
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San Francisco Giants
-135O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)+115
(-110/-110)+115
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Aaron Nola has relied on his four-seam fastball 6.4% more often this season (36.6%) than he did last season (30.2%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)In terms of his batting average, Bryce Harper has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .258 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .288.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Tyler Mahle – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Among all starting pitchers, Tyler Mahle’s fastball velocity of 91.3 mph ranks in the 15th percentile since the start of last season.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Matt Chapman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)Matt Chapman has struggled with his Barrel%; his 9.8% rate last year has fallen to 3% this year.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Tyler Mahle – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Patrick Bailey, the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s game, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games (+4.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 35 games (+5.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-190)Bryson Stott has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.70 Units / 45% ROI)
