
Colorado Rockies
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Miami Marlins
+160O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-185
(-110/-110)-185
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Jose Quintana – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jose Quintana has utilized his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 55.6% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
- Brett Sullivan – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Since the start of last season, Brett Sullivan’s 25% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 99th percentile among his peers.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Colorado Rockies – 2H MoneylineThe Colorado Rockies bullpen projects as the worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Max Meyer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Max Meyer’s 2513-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 93rd percentile out of all SPs.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Jakob Marsee – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)The Colorado Rockies don’t have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Jakob Marsee is assured to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Austin Slater – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Austin Slater hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-185)The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 85 games (+18.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 90 of their last 156 games (+15.65 Units / 8% ROI)
- Otto Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+150/-195)Otto Lopez has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 43% ROI)
