Blue Jays vs Mariners Injury Report – Thursday, October 16, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Seattle Mariners

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays infield defense profiles as the best out of all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Addison Barger is penciled in 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Toronto Blue Jays (17.4 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-heavy lineup of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-175)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Luis Castillo has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 3.8 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  This season, Cal Raleigh has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97 mph compared to last year’s 94.9 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 91 of their last 165 games (+15.25 Units / 8% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 114 games (+20.15 Units / 13% ROI)
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+6.95 Units / 18% ROI)