Expert Player Predictions for Pirates vs Padres – Monday, August 24, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

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San Diego Padres

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Braxton Ashcraft’s 96.6-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 88th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Jake Mangum usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Robbie Ray.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen projects as the 6th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Robbie Ray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Because groundball batters have a substantial edge over flyball pitchers, Robbie Ray and his 40.5% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough position in this outing facing 3 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Xander Bogaerts has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.