Cardinals vs Cubs Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 9/27/2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals meet for the second game of their series at Wrigley Field on September 27, 2025, both teams bring contrasting narratives into this matchup. The Cubs, at 90-70, are enjoying a solid season, while the Cardinals sit at 78-82, marking an average year. Yesterday, the Cubs triumphed, showcasing their strong offense, which ranks 9th in MLB, against a struggling Cardinals team ranked 23rd offensively.

On the mound, the Cubs are expected to start Jameson Taillon, whose season has been marked by inconsistency. With a Win/Loss record of 10-7 and a respectable ERA of 3.78, Taillon’s advanced statistics tell a different story. He ranks 161st among starting pitchers, and with a projected average of 5.3 innings pitched today, he may need to exceed his projections to help his team secure another win. Taillon’s high flyball rate (42% FB) plays into his favor against a Cardinals offense that has struggled to generate power this season.

Opposing him will be Michael McGreevy, who has been more effective with an 8-3 record and ERA of 4.35, ranking him 87th among pitchers. Despite this, his projections indicate that he may face challenges against a Cubs lineup that thrives on power; the Cubs rank 7th in home runs, boasting 218 this season.

With the Cubs favored at -170 and an implied team total of 5.05 runs, the stage is set for a compelling contest. Look for the Cubs’ offense to exploit McGreevy’s low strikeout rate against a lineup known for limiting strikeouts, potentially solidifying their standing as they push towards the playoffs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Out of all SPs, Michael McGreevy’s fastball velocity of 91.2 mph grades out in the 22nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under Total Bases
  Nolan Gorman has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 9.2% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nolan Gorman, Thomas Saggese, Pedro Pages, Jordan Walker).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Generating 16.9 outs per game per started this year on average, Jameson Taillon places him the 79th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Michael Busch has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.1-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 92.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.