Game Time for Cubs vs Reds – 9/21/2025

Chicago Cubs

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds host the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park on September 21, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the National League Central. The Cubs stand at 88-67, enjoying a strong season, while the Reds, with a record of 79-76, have had an average year. This matchup is crucial, especially since the Cubs won yesterday’s game, adding pressure on the Reds to bounce back.

The Reds will send Andrew Abbott to the mound, who has been solid with a Win/Loss record of 9-7 and an impressive ERA of 2.88. Although Abbott ranks as the 64th best starting pitcher in MLB, advanced projections indicate that he may have been lucky this season, with a higher xFIP of 4.30. Abbott’s low walk rate (6.5 BB%) could be advantageous against a Cubs offense that ranks 6th in MLB for walks, potentially neutralizing one of their strengths.

On the other side, the Cubs’ Jameson Taillon, with a record of 10-6 and an ERA of 3.93, is considered below average by Power Rankings standards. He projects to allow 3.0 earned runs and 5.5 hits on average today, which could open up opportunities for the Reds’ offense, which ranks 18th overall this season.

While both teams have solid bullpens, with the Reds at 8th and the Cubs at 7th in MLB rankings, the game’s total is set at a high 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a scoring contest. The betting markets reflect the closeness of this matchup, with moneylines at -110 for both teams. The Reds’ implied team total of 4.50 runs suggests they might be able to capitalize on Taillon’s inconsistencies, setting the stage for an intriguing showdown.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Jameson Taillon’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (45.6 compared to 40.5% last season) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Justin Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Extreme flyball batters like Justin Turner usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Andrew Abbott.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Carlos Santana pulls a lot of his flyballs (40% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  In his previous GS, Andrew Abbott was on point and gave up 1 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Matt McLain is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Will Benson).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 70 of their last 119 games (+24.10 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 106 games (+13.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+7.45 Units / 17% ROI)