Find the TV Channel Information for D-Backs vs Pirates – 8/2/24

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at PNC Park on August 2, 2024, in what marks the first game of their series. Currently, the Pirates sit at 55-53, having settled into an average season, while the Diamondbacks, with a record of 58-51, are performing above average.

In their last outing, the Pirates had a rough time, but the specifics of that game remain undisclosed. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are coming off a strong performance, and their offense ranks as the 5th best in MLB, showcasing their ability to generate runs. Joc Pederson has been a standout for Arizona recently, boasting a .500 batting average and a staggering 1.850 OPS over the last week.

On the mound, the Pirates are projected to start Luis Ortiz, who has shown flashes of brilliance with an impressive 2.75 ERA this season. However, his 4.40 xFIP indicates that he may have been somewhat lucky, suggesting potential struggles ahead. Ortiz has faced challenges in terms of innings pitched, averaging just 4.9 innings per start. He projects to allow 3.0 earned runs today, which could be problematic against a potent Diamondbacks lineup.

Conversely, Brandon Pfaadt is expected to take the hill for Arizona. Despite a 5-6 record, his 3.92 ERA and 3.33 xERA suggest he may be in line for better outcomes moving forward. He projects to pitch 5.2 innings and allow just 2.5 earned runs, which could be enough to keep the Pirates’ struggling offense — ranked 28th in MLB — at bay.

With a Game Total of 8.5 runs, expectations lean toward a competitive matchup. The Pirates are currently listed at +115 on the moneyline, reflecting a close game in the eyes of bettors, while the Diamondbacks sit at -135. Given the offensive disparity and the pitching matchup, the Diamondbacks may hold the edge as they seek to build on their recent successes.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Brandon Pfaadt’s sinker rate has risen by 10.8% from last year to this one (9.9% to 20.7%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Ketel Marte has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.6-mph average to last season’s 91.1-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 8th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Among all SPs, Luis Ortiz’s fastball velocity of 94.5 mph is in the 78th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (36.6) provides evidence that Oneil Cruz has been unlucky this year with his 25.8 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Pittsburgh Pirates hitters collectively grade out 9th- in the game for power this year when judging by their 8.6% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 68 games (+13.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 72 games (+15.25 Units / 19% ROI)
• Connor Joe – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+195/-265)
  Connor Joe has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games at home (+12.00 Units / 54% ROI)