Betting Tips and Odds for Phillies vs Marlins – Sunday September 7th, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 7, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams. The Marlins, currently sitting at 65-77, are struggling through a disappointing season, while the Phillies boast an impressive 83-59 record, showcasing their strength in the National League East. In their last matchup, the Phillies emerged victorious with a 4-2 win, further solidifying their playoff aspirations.

On the mound, Tyler Phillips is projected to start for the Marlins, but his recent performance raises concerns. In his last outing on September 3, 2024, he was hit hard, allowing 6 earned runs in just 1 inning. This season, Phillips has faced challenges, projecting to pitch only 1.5 innings while allowing 0.9 earned runs, 1.6 hits, and 0.7 walks on average. His struggles could be a significant factor against a potent Phillies lineup.

Taijuan Walker, on the other hand, will take the hill for Philadelphia. Despite being considered one of the weaker pitchers in MLB according to advanced metrics, Walker has had a decent season with a 3.92 ERA. However, his last start on September 1, 2025, was also rocky, yielding 5 earned runs in 4 innings. Walker’s projections suggest he will pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, which could keep the game within reach for the Marlins.

Offensively, the Phillies rank as the 7th best in MLB, while the Marlins sit at 21st. Miami’s struggles in generating power are evident, ranking 27th in home runs, which could hinder their chances against a strong Phillies bullpen that ranks 10th. With a game total set at 9.0 runs, the Marlins will need to capitalize on any opportunities to pull off an upset, especially given their underdog status with a moneyline of +115.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Taijuan Walker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Taijuan Walker has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 11.5% more often this year (71.3%) than he did last year (59.8%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  Nick Castellanos has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (83% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  Over his last 3 starts, Adam Mazur has produced a sizeable rise in his fastball spin rate: from 2347 rpm over the whole season to 2452 rpm of late.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Liam Hicks – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Liam Hicks has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.6-mph dropping to 79-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Heriberto Hernandez pulls many of his flyballs (33.3% — 78th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+10.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 64 of their last 104 games (+18.61 Units / 15% ROI)
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)
  Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.30 Units / 70% ROI)