Betting Tips and Odds for Phillies vs Marlins – Sunday September 7th, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 7, 2025, the stakes are evident. The Marlins are struggling this season with a record of 65-77, while the Phillies are enjoying a strong campaign at 83-59. This matchup not only features two teams in different positions in the standings but also highlights a critical National League East rivalry.

In their last game, the Phillies secured a win against the Marlins, adding pressure on Miami as they aim to salvage a game in this series. The Marlins are projected to start Adam Mazur, who has been less than stellar with an 0-2 record and an ERA of 5.74 this year. Although Mazur’s 4.62 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky, his projections for today suggest he will struggle, averaging just 4.6 innings pitched and allowing 2.9 earned runs. This could be problematic against a potent Phillies offense that ranks 6th in MLB.

Conversely, Philadelphia’s Taijuan Walker is set to take the mound with a much more favorable outlook. Walker’s 3.92 ERA and 4.60 xFIP suggest he’s had some luck this year, but he still presents a challenge for the Marlins. His projections indicate he will pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, which is an average performance.

Offensively, the Marlins rank 21st in MLB, struggling to generate runs, while the Phillies boast the 6th-best offense, making this matchup even more daunting for Miami. Given these disparities, the projections favor the Phillies, who have a high implied team total of 4.71 runs compared to Miami’s 4.29. With each team’s current form and the importance of this matchup, expect a competitive game at LoanDepot Park.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Taijuan Walker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Taijuan Walker has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 11.5% more often this year (71.3%) than he did last year (59.8%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Nick Castellanos has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (83% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  Over his last 3 starts, Adam Mazur has produced a sizeable rise in his fastball spin rate: from 2347 rpm over the whole season to 2452 rpm of late.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Liam Hicks – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Liam Hicks has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.6-mph dropping to 79-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Heriberto Hernandez pulls many of his flyballs (33.3% — 78th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+10.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 64 of their last 104 games (+18.61 Units / 15% ROI)
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)
  Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.30 Units / 70% ROI)