Get Bets and Betting Tips for Brewers vs Pirates – 9/06/2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Milwaukee Brewers and the Pittsburgh Pirates gear up for their second matchup of the series on September 6, 2025, both teams are coming off significant performances. The Brewers secured a convincing 5-2 victory against the Pirates in the previous game, indicating their strong form as they sit comfortably in the playoff picture with a robust 87-55 record. In contrast, the Pirates are languishing with a 64-78 record, marking their season as below average.

On the mound, the Pirates are projected to start Mitch Keller, who has struggled this season, boasting a 6-13 Win/Loss record and ranking as the 164th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Keller’s last outing, however, was a bright spot: he threw 5 innings without allowing an earned run, striking out 7 batters. Despite this glimmer of hope, his overall statistics show troubling trends, particularly his ability to allow hits and walks, as he projects to give up 5.7 hits and 1.6 walks today.

The Brewers will counter with Brandon Woodruff, who has had a solid season, recording a 5-2 record with an ERA of 3.69. Woodruff faced difficulties in his last start, giving up 5 earned runs, but he still remains among the top pitchers in the league, ranked 41st overall. The Brewers’ offense, one of the best in baseball ranked 10th, is poised to capitalize on Keller’s vulnerabilities, particularly given the Pirates rank as the 29th best offense in MLB.

With the game’s total set at 7.5 runs, the projections suggest that the Brewers, who have a strong probability of winning, might comfortably exceed the Pirates’ already low implied team total of 3.46 runs. This matchup sets up as one where Keller’s capacity to hold back the potent Milwaukee lineup will be tested, and it will be interesting to see if the Pirates can bounce back from their previous defeat.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-145)
  Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Andrew Vaughn is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be smart to expect worse results for the Milwaukee Brewers offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Mitch Keller has averaged 92.3 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, ranking in the 80th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Bryan Reynolds has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.1-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 91-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 85 of their last 141 games (+23.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-145)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 101 games (+28.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• William Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
  William Contreras has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.10 Units / 70% ROI)