Follow Live Updates on Orioles vs Padres – Wednesday, September 3rd, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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San Diego Padres

On September 3, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Baltimore Orioles at Petco Park in what marks the third game of their series. The Padres are currently enjoying an above-average season with a record of 76-63, while the Orioles sit at 63-76, struggling with a below-average performance. In their last matchup, the Padres fell to the Orioles by a score of 6-2, a disappointing result that they’ll aim to rectify in this game.

The Padres will send Nestor Cortes to the mound, who has had a challenging year with a 2-3 record and an ERA of 5.06. Cortes is projected to pitch an average of 5.6 innings, allowing around 2.5 earned runs. However, his underlying metrics suggest he has been somewhat fortunate this season, with a higher xERA of 5.62. Facing him will be Cade Povich, who has an even tougher season marked by a 2-7 record and an ERA of 5.04. Povich’s projections indicate he may struggle today, expected to pitch only 4.8 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs.

Offensively, the Padres rank 10th in MLB for team batting average and possess the 1st best bullpen, a significant advantage that could play a crucial role in the game. In contrast, the Orioles rank 22nd in batting average and have the 24th ranked bullpen, which may hinder their ability to compete effectively.

With the Padres being a strong betting favorite at -185, the projections suggest they have a solid chance to capitalize on their offensive strengths and the advantage in the bullpen, making them a team to watch closely as they seek to bounce back from their previous loss.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cade Povich – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Cade Povich has had some very good luck with his strikeouts this year, posting a 9.89 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.84 — a 1.05 K/9 gap.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Emmanuel Rivera – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Emmanuel Rivera is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Nestor Cortes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Nestor Cortes’s 89.6-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 2.6-mph fall off from last season’s 92.2-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Jose Iglesias’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 85.8-mph EV last year has dropped off to 82.7-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 70 of their last 126 games (+11.20 Units / 8% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 73 of their last 129 games (+16.13 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+135/-175)
  Jackson Holliday has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)