Odds and Betting Trends for Mariners vs Guardians – 8/31/25

Seattle Mariners

@

Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on August 31, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight race, albeit with differing trajectories. The Guardians sit at 68-66, while the Mariners are a step ahead at 72-64, showcasing their above-average season. In their last encounter, the Guardians edged out the Mariners with a narrow 4-3 victory, snapping a streak of tough games for both sides.

On the mound, Tanner Bibee is projected to start for Cleveland. Bibee, who has had an up-and-down season, carries a 9-10 record and a 4.73 ERA. Despite his average ERA, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as his xERA stands at 3.84, indicating potential for improvement. Conversely, Bryce Miller will take the ball for Seattle. Miller has struggled with a 5.98 ERA this year and has been rated as a below-average pitcher by Power Rankings. However, he too has shown signs of bad luck with a 4.91 xFIP.

Offensively, the Guardians rank a dismal 30th in MLB, reflecting their struggles at the plate, while the Mariners boast the 12th best offense, highlighted by their impressive 3rd ranking in home runs. The Guardians’ best hitter is having an exceptional week, batting .357 with a 1.214 OPS, but the overall team performance has not translated into consistent run production.

With the game total set at 8.0 runs, both teams have an implied total of 4.00 runs, suggesting a tightly contested matchup. Bettors might find value in the Guardians, who, despite their poor offensive ranking, could surprise against a struggling Miller.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Bryce Miller has utilized his curveball 7.9% more often this season (12.3%) than he did last season (4.4%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Eugenio Suarez has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 46.2 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is significantly inflated relative to his 32.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.3% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Tanner Bibee’s fastball spin rate has fallen 116 rpm this season (2245 rpm) below where it was last season (2361 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Daniel Schneemann has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Austin Hedges, the Guardians’s expected catcher in today’s game, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 80 games (+8.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 123 games (+12.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-140/+110)
  Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.40 Units / 48% ROI)