Starting Lineup for Red Sox vs Orioles – August 26, 2025

Boston Red Sox

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Baltimore Orioles

On August 26, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Boston Red Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards for the second game of their series. The Red Sox come into this matchup with a solid 72-60 record, showcasing their strength in the American League East, while the Orioles sit at 60-71, struggling through a below-average season. In their last game, the Red Sox managed a narrow victory over the Orioles, winning 4-3, which adds a layer of urgency for Baltimore as they look to even the series.

The Orioles are projected to start Kyle Bradish, ranked as the 43rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, indicating he is a competent option on the mound. Despite a decent outing in his last start, where he pitched 5 innings with 2 earned runs, Bradish has shown inconsistency this season, projecting to pitch only 4.9 innings today while allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs, 4.8 hits, and 1.8 walks. In contrast, Lucas Giolito, expected to start for the Red Sox, has an 8-2 record this year and a respectable ERA of 3.72. However, his 4.43 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate and could face challenges moving forward.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 6th in MLB, bolstered by their best hitter who has an impressive .782 OPS this season. Meanwhile, the Orioles’ offense has struggled, ranking 17th overall and 22nd in batting average. This season, the projections indicate the Orioles may average only 4.25 runs, a figure that aligns with their recent performance.

As both teams vie for a crucial win, the odds suggest a close contest, with both teams currently at -110 on the moneyline. With the Red Sox holding the upper hand in recent form and overall team strength, they appear poised to continue their success against the struggling Orioles.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Lucas Giolito – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Lucas Giolito has a reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 6 opposite-handed bats in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Jarren Duran has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 10.2% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Kyle Bradish – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Among all starting pitchers, Kyle Bradish’s fastball velocity of 95.4 mph is in the 86th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Alex Jackson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Alex Jackson has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.6-mph average to last season’s 93.3-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  In today’s matchup, Jackson Holliday is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.3% rate (93rd percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 67 of their last 120 games (+13.28 Units / 10% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 44 games (+12.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+130/-170)
  Alex Bregman has hit the Walks Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+14.35 Units / 72% ROI)