Get Insights on the Score Prediction for Mets vs Braves Match – Friday, August 22, 2025

New York Mets

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the New York Mets on August 22, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Braves, with a record of 58-69, are well below average this season, while the Mets stand at 67-60, enjoying a stronger campaign. This matchup marks the first of the series, adding an extra layer of intrigue as both teams vie for momentum.

In their previous game, the Mets showcased their offensive prowess by outscoring their opponents, further solidifying their position as a competitive force in the National League East. The Braves, however, have struggled, particularly with Joey Wentz on the mound. Wentz, projected to start, has had a challenging season, ranking as the 223rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His 4.72 ERA is considered average, but his 4.09 xERA suggests he’s been unlucky, indicating potential for improvement.

On the other side, Nolan McLean is set to take the mound for the Mets. Despite his limited experience this season, his 0.00 ERA is impressive, though his 2.94 xFIP indicates he may have benefitted from some fortune. Both pitchers struggle with control, with Wentz allowing a high walk rate of 10.8% and McLean even higher at 19.1%. This could lead to an interesting battle, as both offenses are among the top in drawing walks.

The Braves’ offense ranks 13th overall, but their struggles with power and consistency are evident, especially in their 24th ranking for team home runs. In contrast, the Mets boast a solid 8th ranking in that category, which could give them an edge in this matchup. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, it appears to be a closely contested affair, and the projections suggest that the Braves might outperform their current odds, making them an intriguing option for bettors looking for value.

New York Mets Insights

• Nolan McLean – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Given that groundball batters struggle against groundball pitchers, Nolan McLean (48.3% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 2 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tyrone Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Tyrone Taylor has been unlucky this year, compiling a .242 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .297 — a .055 difference.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Positioned 2nd-lowest in the majors this year, New York Mets batters jointly have compiled a 11.3° launch angle on their hardest-hit balls (a reliable metric to assess power ability).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Joey Wentz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Joey Wentz has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 6 opposite-handed hitters in today’s game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Michael Harris II has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 41 games (+8.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 60 away games (+6.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• Tyrone Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+145/-190)
  Tyrone Taylor has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.55 Units / 47% ROI)