Rays vs Mariners Value Bets and Betting Line – 8/10/2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Seattle Mariners

On August 10, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Tampa Bay Rays at T-Mobile Park for the third game of their series. The Mariners, currently holding a record of 65-53, are enjoying a strong season and sit in a favorable position in the playoff race. In contrast, the Rays, with a record of 57-61, are struggling and have not managed to gain traction this year.

In their most recent matchup, the Mariners showcased their offensive power, winning decisively. They will rely on their projected starter, Bryan Woo, who has been solid this season with a 9-6 record and a strong 3.02 ERA, ranking him as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Woo is expected to pitch about 6.1 innings, allowing an average of 2.1 earned runs, which bodes well for the Mariners. However, he has shown some vulnerability, projected to allow 4.9 hits and 1.0 walks, which could give the Rays a chance if they capitalize on these opportunities.

On the other side, the Rays will counter with Adrian Houser, who has a 6-3 record and an excellent 2.54 ERA. However, his 4.25 xFIP suggests he may not sustain this level of performance. Houser’s low strikeout rate (16.5 K%) could be a concern against a Mariners lineup that ranks 4th in MLB for strikeouts.

The Mariners’ offense ranks 11th overall, with a standout home run capability, ranking 3rd in MLB. This power could prove crucial against Houser, who has struggled against high-strikeout teams. Meanwhile, the Rays are averaging only 3.22 runs based on current betting odds, indicating a tough road ahead.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Adrian Houser – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Tallying 18.6 outs per start this year on average, Adrian Houser places in the 95th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Junior Caminero has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.7-mph to 101.6-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Given his large platoon split, Bryan Woo will have a tough matchup squaring off against 6 batters in the projected batting order of the opposite hand in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Cal Raleigh has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 51.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably higher than his 37.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.7% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 101 games (+8.80 Units / 8% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 105 games (+13.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Chandler Simpson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.75 Units / 34% ROI)