Follow the Live Updates for Braves vs Mets – 7/28/2024

Atlanta Braves

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New York Mets

As we head into the final game of this four-game series, the New York Mets (55-49) will host the Atlanta Braves (55-48) on July 28, 2024, at Citi Field. Both teams are having above-average seasons and are looking to solidify their standings in the competitive National League East. The Mets have the advantage of playing at home while the Braves are aiming to nab a crucial win on the road.

Starting for the Mets will be left-hander David Peterson, who notably boasts a 5-0 win-loss record and an impressive 3.14 ERA this year. However, his 4.64 xFIP indicates he might have been quite fortunate this season, and he’s projected to allow 2.3 earned runs over 5.0 innings today according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Despite being ranked #130 among starting pitchers, Peterson has managed to keep runs off the board, although his high walk rate (10.8%) could be troublesome. However, he might have the edge against the Braves, who rank 5th in fewest walks in MLB, potentially limiting their ability to capitalize on Peterson’s control issues.

On the mound for the Braves is right-hander Reynaldo Lopez, who holds a stellar 2.12 ERA and a 7-4 record. Despite his excellent ERA, his 3.85 xFIP suggests he has also been a bit lucky. THE BAT X projects Lopez to give up 2.4 earned runs and pitch 4.9 innings, which isn’t particularly strong. Lopez will face a tough challenge against the Mets’ offense, which ranks 7th in MLB, bolstered by their impressive 4th rank in home runs.

Over the past week, Jeff McNeil has been red hot for the Mets, racking up a .391 batting average and a 1.226 OPS over seven games, including two home runs. For the Braves, Marcell Ozuna has led the charge, hitting .350 with a 1.130 OPS and two homers in his last six games.

The Mets’ bullpen, ranked 21st, has been a weak spot, which could be a concern late in the game. In contrast, the Braves’ bullpen ranks 7th and has been a stronger unit. With both teams equally matched and betting markets giving a 50% win probability to each side, expect a close contest where every pitch and at-bat will be crucial.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Reynaldo Lopez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Reynaldo Lopez’s 2065-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a significant 124-rpm decline from last year’s 2189-rpm mark.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Marcell Ozuna has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.8-mph average to last season’s 96.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Adam Duvall – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Adam Duvall pulls many of his flyballs (43% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), David Peterson is expected to ring up an average of 5.5 strikeouts today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jose Iglesias’s true offensive ability to be a .289, providing some evidence that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .112 disparity between that figure and his actual .401 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• It may be best to expect worse numbers for the New York Mets offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 6th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 44 games (+14.30 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 96 games (+26.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 34 games (+11.70 Units / 34% ROI)