Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
(-105/-115)-130
As the Milwaukee Brewers host the Chicago Cubs on July 29, 2025, this matchup carries significant weight in the National League Central standings. The Brewers currently sit at 63-43, while the Cubs are right on their tail at 62-44, making this a crucial game for both teams. The Brewers recently secured a victory against the Cubs, winning 8-4 on July 28, a result that could boost their confidence heading into this second game of the series.
On the mound, Quinn Priester is set to take the ball for Milwaukee. Priester, ranked 77th among starting pitchers in MLB, boasts a solid 9-2 record and a commendable 3.28 ERA this season. His last outing saw him pitch 7 innings with only 2 earned runs, indicating he’s in good form. However, projections suggest he may allow an average of 2.6 earned runs and struggle with walks, which could be a concern against a potent Cubs lineup that ranks 3rd in the league in home runs.
Colin Rea, starting for Chicago, has had a rough patch lately, allowing 5 earned runs in his last start. His current ERA of 4.06 is above average, but with a higher xERA of 4.83, there are signs he might be due for regression. The Cubs’ offense, while strong, may face challenges against Priester’s groundball tendencies, especially given their reliance on power.
With the Brewers favored at -130, the projections indicate they could be undervalued given their recent form and the strength of Priester on the mound. This game promises to be a thrilling contest as both teams vie for crucial wins in their playoff pursuits.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Colin Rea – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Colin Rea is expected to wring up 3.8 strikeouts in today’s matchup.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Quinn Priester – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Given the 0.33 deviation between Quinn Priester’s 7.61 K/9 and his 7.28 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game this year when it comes to strikeouts and should see negative regression going forward.Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-270/+200)Jackson Chourio’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
- William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-130)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 58 games (+20.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 58 of their last 99 games (+9.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)Michael Busch has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.50 Units / 32% ROI)