Explore Expert Picks and Betting Line for Cubs vs Yankees – July 13, 2025

Chicago Cubs

@

New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Chicago Cubs on July 13, 2025, at Yankee Stadium, both teams are looking to gain momentum in an exciting Interleague matchup. The Yankees currently sit at 53-42, enjoying a solid season, while the Cubs lead at 56-39, boasting a great record. In their last game, the Yankees displayed their offensive prowess, putting together a strong performance that showcased their 1st-ranked offense in MLB.

The pitching matchup features right-hander Will Warren for the Yankees and left-hander Shota Imanaga for the Cubs. Warren, ranked as the 71st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has had an average season with a 4.70 ERA. However, his 3.30 xFIP suggests he could be poised for better results moving forward. He projects to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing about 2.6 earned runs, but his average of 4.9 hits allowed per outing raises some concerns.

On the other side, Imanaga presents a different challenge. With a stellar 2.80 ERA this season, he ranks as a below-average pitcher by the projections. He has allowed a high number of fly balls (51% FB%), which could be problematic against a Yankees lineup that has belted 150 home runs this year, the most in MLB. The Yankees’ power could turn Imanaga’s fly balls into home runs, giving them an edge in this matchup.

As the Yankees look to capitalize on their offensive strength against a pitcher who may not fare well against their power, the betting odds reflect a close contest. The Yankees’ moneyline sits at -130, indicating a strong chance for victory, while the Cubs trail at +110. Given the Yankees’ recent performances and their ability to exploit Imanaga’s weaknesses, they could very well exceed expectations in this matchup.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  With 6 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Shota Imanaga will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+110)
  The Chicago Cubs projected batting order grades out as the 3rd-best of the day in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)
  Will Warren’s 2568-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 100th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Typically, bats like Aaron Judge who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Shota Imanaga.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 11.8% Barrel% of the New York Yankees grades them out as the #1 squad in MLB this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+9.95 Units / 26% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 82 games (+7.65 Units / 6% ROI)
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Michael Busch has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.95 Units / 57% ROI)