Read the Prediction and Game Breakdown for Braves vs Cardinals Match Saturday, July 12th, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face off against the Atlanta Braves on July 12, 2025, the stakes are higher than usual after both teams experienced a nail-biting matchup just a day prior, with the Braves edging the Cardinals 6-5. This game marks the second in their series, and both teams are eager to shake off the mental toll of yesterday’s close contest.

Currently, the Cardinals sit at 50-45, having an above-average season, while the Braves struggle at 41-52, indicating a particularly rough year. St. Louis boasts an offense rated 14th overall, with a solid batting average ranking of 10th, but their power numbers remain disappointing, sitting 21st in home runs. Conversely, Atlanta’s offense ranks 18th, and their batting average is even lower, at 21st, highlighting their struggles to bring runners home.

On the mound, the Cardinals are projected to start Erick Fedde, who has had a challenging season with a 3-9 record and an ERA of 4.79. Fedde’s last start was abbreviated, yielding 3 earned runs over just 1 inning. His projected performance today looks average at best, but he has been fortunate in some matchups, as suggested by his xFIP of 5.31, indicating potential regression.

On the other hand, the Braves will counter with Aaron Bummer, who has made an impact with a solid ERA of 3.38. Even though Bummer’s pitch count is limited to around 2 innings, his effectiveness can provide a significant boost to Atlanta’s struggling bullpen, ranked 28th overall.

With a game total of 9.0 runs, both teams are projected for a high-scoring affair. The Cardinals have a high implied team total of 4.45 runs, suggesting that their offense might find success against a Braves pitching staff that continues to underperform. As the Cardinals look to turn the tables after yesterday’s loss, they could capitalize on their offensive strengths, especially against a pitcher like Bummer who may not be able to go deep into the game.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Aaron Bummer – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Aaron Bummer is projected to throw 33 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 3rd-least of the day.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Extreme flyball bats like Ozzie Albies tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Erick Fedde.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Atlanta Braves have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Erick Fedde has used his secondary offerings 6.1% less often this season (62.8%) than he did last year (68.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-105)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 67 games (+8.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 58 games (+10.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.65 Units / 53% ROI)