Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Braves vs Athletics Thursday, July 10, 2025

Atlanta Braves

@

Athletics

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to face the Atlanta Braves on July 10, 2025, both teams are struggling this season, with the Athletics sitting at 38-56 and the Braves at 40-51. The Athletics have been particularly disappointing, and their recent loss to the Braves, where they fell 9-2, highlights their ongoing struggles. This matchup marks the third game in the series, and the stakes are low as neither team is in contention for a playoff spot.

On the mound, Oakland will send out JP Sears, who has had a tumultuous year with a 7-7 record and a below-average ERA of 4.76. Despite being ranked as the 200th best starting pitcher in MLB, advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky this season, as his 4.22 xERA indicates potential for improvement. However, Sears has been projected to allow 3.5 earned runs and 5.6 hits today, which does not bode well for the Athletics.

Conversely, the Braves will counter with Spencer Strider, who has had a solid but inconsistent season, with a 3-7 record and a commendable 3.93 ERA. Strider’s ranking as the 21st best starter in MLB reflects his ability to perform at a high level, and he projects to strike out an impressive 7.8 batters today. His recent outing saw him allow 3 earned runs over 6 innings, but he still managed to secure a win, showcasing his potential to dominate.

The Athletics’ offense ranks as the 12th best in MLB, which is respectable, but they face a tough challenge against a Braves team that, despite being ranked 19th in offense, has the talent to capitalize on Sears’ struggles. With a high game total set at 10.5 runs, this matchup promises to be an engaging battle, albeit one that reflects the challenges both teams have faced this season.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Strider – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Spencer Strider’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph ranks in the 78th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Sean Murphy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Sean Murphy has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-195)
  The Atlanta Braves projected batting order ranks as the 2nd-best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Athletics Insights

• JP Sears – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, JP Sears (41.6% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in Atlanta’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Miguel Andujar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Miguel Andujar has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 87.6-mph average to last season’s 84.1-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  The Athletics bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 91 games (+8.85 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 67 games (+12.75 Units / 17% ROI)
• Miguel Andujar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Miguel Andujar has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 41% ROI)