Phillies vs Giants Bets and Betting Trends – 7/09/25

Philadelphia Phillies

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San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face the Philadelphia Phillies on July 9, 2025, both teams find themselves in the midst of critical series action. The Giants (51-42) are having an above-average season, while the Phillies (53-39) are enjoying a great year, sitting comfortably in the playoff picture. Their last meeting ended in a nail-biting 4-3 victory for the Giants, which could fuel their momentum heading into today’s contest.

On the mound, the Giants are set to start Justin Verlander, whose struggles this season are well-documented. With a Win/Loss record of 0-6 and a below-average ERA of 4.84, Verlander has been on the hot seat, especially after his last outing where he allowed 6 earned runs in just 3 innings. While his 4.27 FIP suggests some bad luck, the Giants will need him to turn things around to compete with the Phillies’ solid lineup. Verlander projects to pitch 5.2 innings today and allow 2.7 earned runs on average, but his tendency to give up hits (5.1 projected) will be a concern.

Opposing him, Jesus Luzardo has been more effective this season, holding a record of 7-5 and an average ERA of 4.44. Luzardo also faces challenges, having allowed 5 earned runs in his last start. He is projected to pitch slightly longer than Verlander at 5.6 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs.

Offensively, the Giants feature a subpar lineup, ranking 24th in MLB overall and struggling to produce runs. In contrast, the Phillies boast a top-10 offense, currently ranked 10th, with their best hitter recording 28 home runs and a .933 OPS this season. Given these disparities, San Francisco will rely heavily on its top-tier bullpen ranked 4th in MLB, hoping to close any gaps created by their starting pitching.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, betting markets suggest this will be a closely contested matchup, and the projections favor the Phillies with an implied team total of 4.50 runs compared to the Giants’ average expected total of 4.00 runs. As the Giants look to build on their recent victory, today’s game promises to be a pivotal moment in this series.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-135)
  The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the weakest among all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+145/-190)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner as the 9th-best hitter in baseball as it relates to his batting average talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  Justin Verlander is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #27 HR venue in Major League Baseball today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Jung Hoo Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Jung Hoo Lee has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Heliot Ramos has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 75 games (+11.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 43 away games (+14.60 Units / 30% ROI)
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1100/-4000)
  Bryson Stott has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 100% ROI)