Find the Best Mariners vs Yankees Picks and Odds – 7/8/2025

Seattle Mariners

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees will host the Seattle Mariners on July 8, 2025, for the first game of their series. Currently, the Yankees sit at 49-41, while the Mariners are just behind with a record of 48-42. Both teams are having above-average seasons, making this matchup a meaningful one, even if neither is in contention for their division title.

In their last outings, the Yankees emerged victorious on July 6, defeating their opponents 6-4, while the Mariners notched a 1-0 win in their previous game. The Yankees are projected to send Will Warren to the mound, who has had a tumultuous season thus far, boasting a 5-4 record and a troubling 5.02 ERA. However, his advanced metrics suggest he has been unlucky, with a 3.30 xFIP indicating he may improve in the coming weeks. Warren’s last start was a rough one, giving up 8 earned runs over just 4 innings.

Logan Gilbert, the Mariners’ starter, has been on a much better trajectory. With a 2-2 record and a stellar 3.40 ERA, he ranks as the 17th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Gilbert is a high-strikeout guy, taking advantage of a Yankees lineup that has struck out the 5th most in MLB, which could give him the upper hand in this matchup.

The Yankees possess one of the most potent offenses in baseball, ranking 2nd in runs scored and home runs this season. Their chances of racking up runs will be bolstered by their recent form—especially from their best hitter, who has been on fire, hitting .450 with an OPS of 1.586 over the past week. Meanwhile, despite ranking 12th in overall offensive production, the Mariners will need to capitalize on their opportunities against a struggling Yankees bullpen, currently ranked 27th.

As is often the case, the dynamics of pitching and hitting will be crucial, and fans can expect a competitive game with the current over/under set at 9.0 runs, reflecting the offensive potential of both teams.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Logan Gilbert is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #6 HR venue in the majors today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  J.P. Crawford may have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Seattle Mariners batters collectively place 9th- in the majors for power this year when judging by their 9.2% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  As a result of his large platoon split, Will Warren will not have the upper hand going up against 6 bats in the projected offense of opposing handedness in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Extreme groundball batters like DJ LeMahieu usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Gilbert.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Anthony Volpe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)
  Cody Bellinger has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+11.05 Units / 43% ROI)