Find the Best Mariners vs Yankees Picks and Odds – 7/8/2025

Seattle Mariners

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New York Yankees

On July 8, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Seattle Mariners at Yankee Stadium for the first game of their series, with both teams looking to build on their recent successes. The Yankees are currently 49-41 and are having an above-average season, sitting just above the Mariners, who hold a 48-42 record. The Yankees’ offense ranks as the 2nd best in MLB, boasting impressive power with the 2nd most home runs and a solid batting average that places them 6th overall. In contrast, the Mariners, while they rank 12th in offense, have shown strength in their own right, especially with their 7th best home run total.

The Yankees are projected to start Will Warren, who has had a challenging season with a 5-4 record and an ERA of 5.02. Warren’s last outing was particularly rough, as he allowed 8 earned runs in just 4 innings pitched. However, advanced projections suggest that he may have been unlucky, as his xFIP of 3.30 suggests he could perform better moving forward. On the other side, Logan Gilbert of the Mariners has been a standout, holding a 2-2 record with a stellar 3.40 ERA. Gilbert’s advanced stats rank him as the 17th best starting pitcher in MLB, and he projects to be a tough challenge for the Yankees’ lineup.

The Yankees’ high-strikeout offense could play into Gilbert’s hands, as he boasts a 36.8% strikeout rate. Conversely, the Yankees’ patience at the plate may be tested against Gilbert’s low walk rate of 5.5%. With a game total set at 9.0 runs, the betting markets indicate this matchup should be competitive. The Yankees have a moneyline of -130, suggesting a favorable outlook for them, especially given their strong offensive capabilities and the projections indicating a high team total of 4.71 runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Logan Gilbert is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #6 HR venue in the majors today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  J.P. Crawford may have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners’ bullpen grades out as the 10th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  As a result of his large platoon split, Will Warren will not have the upper hand going up against 6 bats in the projected offense of opposing handedness in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Typically, bats like Aaron Judge who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Logan Gilbert.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Anthony Volpe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 78 games (+10.92 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 73 games (+5.95 Units / 7% ROI)
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-135/+105)
  Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+8.75 Units / 34% ROI)