Get the Royals vs Rangers Injury Report – Thursday, June 19, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers and the Kansas City Royals square off on June 19, 2025, in a matchup that both teams approach with similar records of 36-38. This American League contest at Globe Life Field features the Rangers, who suffered a 6-3 defeat to the Royals just yesterday, while Kansas City looks to maintain momentum after the same score in their favor. Both teams find themselves in the middle of the pack, struggling to gain ground in their respective divisions.

Shawn Armstrong, projected to start for the Rangers, has had a mixed season thus far. Although he holds an excellent ERA of 3.00, advanced stats suggest he may have been fortunate, as his xFIP is 0.94 points higher. Armstrong is a high-strikeout pitcher with a 28.2 K%, but he faces a Royals offense that ranks 2nd in the fewest strikeouts in MLB, which could complicate his ability to capitalize on that strength. Furthermore, Armstrong’s tendency to allow hits (projected 1.5 today) raises concerns against a Royals lineup that has shown flashes of life.

Michael Wacha, starting for Kansas City, has a solid ERA of 3.38, although his xFIP indicates he may be due for some regression. Wacha’s low walk rate (6.3 BB%) might benefit him against a Rangers offense that struggles to draw walks, currently ranking 4th least in MLB.

Betting markets give the Rangers a slight edge with a moneyline of -120, indicating a close matchup. However, considering the projections, there might be value in siding with the Royals given their recent win and favorable matchup against a pitcher who could be in for a rough day against their low-strikeout lineup. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a moderate offensive output.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
  Generating 17.1 outs per GS this year on average, Michael Wacha places him the 76th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Salvador Perez are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Shawn Armstrong.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Kansas City Royals have been the 8th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Shawn Armstrong has used his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 60.3% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Evan Carter – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Evan Carter is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  The Texas Rangers bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 55 games (+18.00 Units / 29% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 52 games (+17.35 Units / 29% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.85 Units / 34% ROI)