Review Betting Odds and Picks for Padres vs Dodgers – Tuesday, June 17, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Los Angeles Dodgers

On June 17, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the San Diego Padres at Dodger Stadium for the second game of their series. The Dodgers enter this matchup with a solid record of 44-29, showcasing their strong performance this season as they sit near the top of the National League West. In contrast, the Padres have a record of 39-32, which is above average but not quite on par with their rivals. In their last game, the Dodgers secured a victory over the Padres by a score of 6-3, further solidifying their position in the standings.

Projected to start for the Dodgers is Jack Dreyer, a left-handed pitcher who has struggled with his projections, averaging just 1.8 innings pitched and allowing 0.9 earned runs. His performance is compounded by a concerning projection of 1.6 hits allowed, which could be a liability against a potent Padres offense. On the other side, Randy Vasquez will take the mound for San Diego. While his ERA of 3.57 is decent, his 5.61 xFIP indicates that he might not maintain this level of performance. Vasquez has a tendency to give up fly balls and walks, which could be problematic against a Dodgers offense that ranks 1st in MLB with 112 home runs this season.

The projections favor the Dodgers, particularly given their elite offense and the Padres’ struggles against high-power lineups. With a Game Total set at 10.0 runs, bettors should keep an eye on the Dodgers’ ability to capitalize on Vasquez’s weaknesses. The Dodgers are currently a significant betting favorite, reflecting their strong standing and impressive offensive capabilities.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Randy Vasquez’s fastball velocity has decreased 2 mph this season (92.3 mph) below where it was last season (94.3 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  In the last week’s worth of games, Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.6% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The San Diego Padres (19.4 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-heavy team of batters of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Jacob Dreyer will “start” for Los Angeles Dodgers in today’s matchup but will fill the role of an opener and may not pitch more than a couple innings.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Shohei Ohtani has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 101.4-mph average to last season’s 99-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 49 games (+12.45 Units / 23% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 away games (+9.40 Units / 43% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+380/-580)
  Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+14.30 Units / 286% ROI)