Check Out Red Sox vs Mariners Picks and Betting Tips – Tuesday June 17th, 2025

Boston Red Sox

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Seattle Mariners

On June 17, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Boston Red Sox at T-Mobile Park for the second game of their series. In their previous matchup, the Mariners fell to the Red Sox by a score of 2-0, continuing their average season with a record of 36-35. The Red Sox, now at 38-36, are similarly positioned as they look to gain momentum in this tightly contested matchup.

Bryan Woo is projected to take the mound for the Mariners, boasting a solid Win/Loss record of 5-4 and a strong ERA of 3.39, making him the 23rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Woo projects to pitch an average of 6.2 innings today while allowing only 2.2 earned runs, which could be crucial against a Red Sox offense that ranks 6th in the league. However, Woo’s projection of allowing 5.0 hits and 0.9 walks is a concern that could provide opportunities for Boston.

On the other side, Walker Buehler, who is having a rough season with a 5.01 ERA, will start for the Red Sox. His average projection of 5.6 innings pitched and 2.7 earned runs allowed might not hold up against a Mariners lineup that ranks 11th in the league in offensive capability. Buehler’s performance has been somewhat fortuitous, as reflected in his 4.01 xFIP, suggesting that he might be due for an improvement.

With the Mariners’ offense performing well, particularly in home runs where they rank 9th, they should capitalize on Buehler’s struggles. The Mariners are currently favored with a moneyline of -150, indicating confidence in Woo’s ability to lead the team to victory.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  Walker Buehler is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.1% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in T-Mobile Park — the #8 HR venue in MLB — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• David Hamilton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so David Hamilton stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox’ bullpen profiles as the 10th-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Bryan Woo has used his four-seam fastball 6.4% less often this year (42.6%) than he did last season (49%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Batters such as Jorge Polanco with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Walker Buehler who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Cal Raleigh pulls many of his flyballs (42.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+5.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-115)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 27 away games (+12.15 Units / 39% ROI)
• Marcelo Mayer – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+610/-1200)
  Marcelo Mayer has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+9.60 Units / 160% ROI)