Player Props Analysis for Brewers vs Cubs – Tuesday June 17th, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to take on the Milwaukee Brewers at Wrigley Field on June 17, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum in this National League Central matchup. The Cubs, currently holding a record of 44-28, are enjoying a strong season, while the Brewers sit at 39-34, putting together an above-average campaign. In their most recent outings, both teams came off narrow victories, with the Cubs edging the Brewers 3-2 in their previous game.

The Cubs are set to start right-hander Ben Brown, who has had an inconsistent season with a 3-5 record and a troubling ERA of 5.71. However, advanced projections suggest that Brown may have been unlucky, as his 3.39 xFIP indicates he could perform better than his ERA reflects. On the other side, the Brewers will counter with Chad Patrick, whose 3.25 ERA might be misleading, given his below-average 4.15 xFIP. Patrick’s tendency to allow home runs could prove costly against a Cubs lineup that ranks 5th in the league with 97 home runs this season.

Chicago’s offense continues to shine, ranking 4th in MLB, and boasts a powerful lineup that could exploit Patrick’s flyball tendencies. Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s offense has struggled, ranked 23rd overall, which might hinder their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities. The Cubs are currently favored with a moneyline of -155, reflecting confidence in their lineup to produce runs against a pitcher who has shown vulnerability.

With a projected game total of 9.5 runs, the Cubs appear well-positioned to leverage their offensive strength against a struggling Brewers team. As both teams look to secure a win, fans can expect a competitive game with significant implications for the division standings.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Chad Patrick – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Chad Patrick’s 86.9-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 2nd percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme groundball batters like Christian Yelich tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Ben Brown.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 6.2% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers ranks them as the #30 club in baseball this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-190)
  Ben Brown is an extreme flyball pitcher (34% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #23 HR venue among all major league parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Carson Kelly has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (58% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.6% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+9.20 Units / 66% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 39 games (+11.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+430/-690)
  Christian Yelich has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+6.10 Units / 61% ROI)