Winning Probability and Match Preview for Yankees vs Red Sox – 6/13/2025

New York Yankees

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the New York Yankees at Fenway Park on June 13, 2025, this matchup carries significant weight in the American League East. The Red Sox currently sit at 34-36, having recently won a close game against the Yankees on June 11 by a score of 4-3. Meanwhile, the Yankees are enjoying a stellar season at 42-25, showcasing their dominance with the best offense in MLB, ranking 1st in home runs and 2nd in batting average.

Tonight’s starting pitchers, Garrett Crochet for the Red Sox and Ryan Yarbrough for the Yankees, present an intriguing contrast. Crochet, ranked as the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, boasts an impressive 2.35 ERA this season. Despite a challenging outing in his last start, where he allowed 5 earned runs, Crochet has shown the ability to limit damage, projecting to allow only 2.2 earned runs tonight. His high groundball rate of 47% could work in his favor against a powerful Yankees lineup that thrives on home runs.

On the other hand, Yarbrough has struggled, with a 4.17 ERA this season and a concerning last start where he allowed 8 earned runs over just 4 innings. His projections suggest he may allow 2.8 earned runs tonight, which could prove detrimental against the Red Sox’s strong offense, currently ranked 6th in MLB.

With the Red Sox favored in this matchup, their solid offensive ranking and Crochet’s elite status on the mound may provide them with the edge they need to secure another win against the Yankees. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a potentially competitive battle.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – Moneyline (+120)
  Among every team playing today, the worst outfield defense is that of the the New York Yankees.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  DJ LeMahieu is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Boston (#2-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Given that flyball hitters hold a notable edge over groundball pitchers, Garrett Crochet and his 45% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough position in this game going up against 3 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Carlos Narvaez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Carlos Narvaez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Trevor Story hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 games (+4.00 Units / 5% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.30 Units / 21% ROI)
• Carlos Narvaez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)
  Carlos Narvaez has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+7.65 Units / 109% ROI)