Score Prediction and Insights for Athletics vs Blue Jays Match – May 29, 2025

Athletics

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Toronto Blue Jays

On May 29, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Oakland Athletics at Rogers Centre for the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Blue Jays sitting at 27-28 and the Athletics at 23-33. The Blue Jays are coming off a tough stretch but remain the betting favorites with a moneyline of -145, reflecting an implied win probability of 57%.

The matchup features two starting pitchers with contrasting performances. Toronto’s Jose Berrios, a right-hander, has had a rocky season with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 4.22, which is above average but suggests he might have been lucky this year. He projects to pitch 6.0 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs while striking out an average of 5.2 batters. However, he also faces challenges, as he’s projected to allow 6.0 hits and 1.3 walks, which could put him in a tough spot against the Athletics’ offense.

On the other hand, Oakland’s Jacob Lopez, a left-handed pitcher, has shown promise with a 2.57 ERA in his limited appearances but carries a 5.03 xFIP, indicating he may be due for a downturn. He’s expected to pitch just 4.6 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, which could be problematic given his high walk rate projection of 1.9.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 18th in MLB, struggling particularly with power, sitting 26th in home runs. In contrast, the Athletics boast a 10th place ranking in offense, highlighted by a 7th place batting average and 8th in home runs, indicating they could capitalize on Berrios’s vulnerabilities.

With a Game Total of 8.5 runs, both teams will need to find their rhythm at the plate to secure a win. The projections suggest the Blue Jays might have the edge, but they’ll need to overcome their recent inconsistencies to turn that potential into reality.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – Moneyline (+140)
  Among every team in action today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Athletics.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Miguel Andujar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Miguel Andujar has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 86.7-mph average to last season’s 84.1-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Brent Rooker hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  Jose Berrios is an extreme flyball pitcher (32.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #2 HR venue in MLB today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Typically, hitters like Anthony Santander who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jacob Lopez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 17.8% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 49 games (+6.80 Units / 12% ROI)
• Athletics – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+6.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-150/+115)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+10.45 Units / 38% ROI)