Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
(-110/-110)-115
As the Minnesota Twins host the Kansas City Royals on May 25, 2025, the stakes are high in this American League Central matchup. The Twins currently sit at 29-22, enjoying a solid season, while the Royals are right behind them at 28-25, showcasing an above-average performance. Notably, Minnesota edged Kansas City 5-4 in yesterday’s game, adding momentum to their bid for supremacy within the division.
On the mound, the Twins will hand the ball to Bailey Ober, who has a solid 4-1 record and a commendable 3.68 ERA this season. However, projections suggest he might face challenges today. Ober’s high fly-ball rate (42%) could play in his favor, considering Kansas City’s struggles with power, as they’ve hit the fewest home runs in MLB this season (30th overall). Still, Ober’s tendency to allow high hit and walk rates could open the door for the Royals’ offense, which ranks 26th in MLB.
Kris Bubic, the Royals’ starting pitcher, has been a revelation with a sterling 1.47 ERA and an impressive 5-2 record. While his xFIP indicates a potential regression, his last outing was dominant, tossing 7 innings of shutout ball. Bubic’s low-walk rate aligns well against a Twins lineup that ranks 19th in offensive production.
Given that the Twins are favored with a -120 moneyline, their chances of winning look favorable, especially considering their strong bullpen, ranked 4th in MLB. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, expect a tightly contested matchup, perhaps leaning towards a pitcher’s duel in this critical series.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Kris Bubic – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Out of all SPs, Kris Bubic’s fastball spin rate of 2404 rpm is in the 79th percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)There has been a significant improvement in Michael Massey’s launch angle from last year’s 16.7° to 22.9° this year.Explain: A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.
- Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Kansas City Royals with a 20.1% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)Bailey Ober is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #21 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Willi Castro’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 90.6-mph mark last year has dropped to 86.6-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Minnesota Twins – 2H MoneylineThe Minnesota Twins bullpen projects as the 5th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+12.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 45 games (+21.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Nick Loftin – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)Nick Loftin has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+8.35 Units / 87% ROI)